Bills vs. Patriots H Bills vs. Patriots H

The final game of Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season is a battle for first place in the AFC East. The , back atop their rightful perch, travel to Buffalo to take on the on “Monday Night Football.”New England has won six straight games after opening the season at just 2-4, while Buffalo has alternated wins and lo ses over its Preston Tucker Jersey last six after beginning the season on a 4-1 hot streak. Each team needs a victory to keep pace with the and at the top of the AFC playoff race, and along with the actual players on the field, that should make this an interesting matchup.So, can the Bills reclaim first place in the division, or will the Patriots solidify their hold on the top spot? We’ll find out soon enough. But first, let’s break down the matchup.Date:Monday, Dec. 6|Time:8:15 p.m. ETLocation:Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)TV:ESPN|Stream:fuboTV ( )Follow:Odds:Bills -3, O/U 41 The Bills have been arguably the NFL’s best defense in 2021. Entering Week 13, Buffalo ranks first in yards allowed per game, second in points allowed per game (more on the team that ranks first later in this post), first in EPA per play, and first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, with the fourth-ranked unit against the run and first-ranked unit against the pa s.The two teams to experience the most offensive succe s against the Bills, though, are two of the most physical, run-based teams in the NFL. The dropped 41 points on Buffalo and the Tenne see Titans hung 34 on the Bills. Those two teams are the only ones to score more than 23 against Sean J.R. Richard Jersey McDermott’s unit this year. and combined for 54 carries for 328 yards (6.1 per carry) and seven touchdowns on the ground in those two games. By way of perspective, consider that all other players have combined for 735 yards and four touchdowns on 218 carries (3.4 per carry) against the Bills.The big differentiator in those two games was the work Taylor and Henry were able to do after first contact. The Colts averaged 4.74 yards after contact per carry, according to TruMedia; the Titans averaged 5.95 per carry. No other team has averaged more than 2.55 yards after contact per carry against Buffalo. New England ranks almost exactly average in yards after contact this season (2.73 per carry compared with a league average of 2.77), though rookie has shown an ability to do better (3.2 per carry) than his backfield mates and could therefore be New England’s best option in this matchup. Buffalo tends to mix up its coverages in the pa sing game, utilizing each of Cover-1, Cover-3, and Cover-4 on at least 23% of snaps, per TruMedia. Of the three, has easily been at his best against Cover-4 so far this season, perhaps because it encourages the kind of underneath throws on which Jones excels. (His best performance of the year so far came against a defense that plays more Cover-4 than any team in the NFL, for what it’s worth.)He doesn’t have the elite arm strength needed to test opponents down the field against one-on-one perimeter coverage, but he makes up for that with his incredibly quick coverage diagnosis, decision-making, and release. (Along with the fact that he is put in position to succeed by his play-calling and offensive line, which is always helpful.) Those traits tend to play up against teams that utilize the types of soft zones that have given many other quarterbacks trouble this season, but against which Jones has largely thrived. Marwin Gonzalez Jersey In the absence of No. 1 cornerback , it’ll be interesting to see if McDermott gets a bit le s aggre sive with his coverage tactics. That may not be advisable in this particular matchup, but it would only be natural for a defense to adjust to the lo s of its best coverage player by going a bit more conservative. If that’s the tack the Bills take, it would play into the hands of Jones and his receiving corps, who are better at finding soft spots than creating separation against man coverage. The big question here is how Bill Belichick wants to make the Bills beat his defense.Buffalo wants to throw the ball as often as po sible, and just about every opposing defense knows that. As such, opponents have taken to utilizing the types of soft zone coverages that gave the so much trouble earlier in the season, e sentially daring the Bills to run the ball with the likes of , , and (more recently) . Belichick has used this style of defense against other pa s-happy opponents before, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him utilize it again here.But Belichick also knows that Allen has been somewhat vulnerable to the blitz. His EPA per dropback has been cut in half (from 0.14 to 0.07) when the opponent has sent at least one extra rusher after him, according to TruMedia. The Buffalo offensive line has not held up particularly well against blitzes this year, allowing pre sure on more than 41% of blitzed dropbacks. (Allen, like all quarterbacks, tends to perform worse under pre sure.) The Pats have one of the best pre sure units in Tyler Clippard Jersey the NFL, with leading a group that is terrorizing opposing pa sers. Judon ranked fourth in the NFL with 50 total pre sures coming into Week 13, and New England supports him by bringing the rush from all over the place. Whether it’s , , , , , , , , or whomever else, the Belichicks figure out a way to put them in position to get into the backfield and bother the opponent’s signal-caller.So, will Belichick sit back and dare the Bills to fight left-handed, or will he try to heat up a quarterback who can be prone to big mistakes when under pre sure? (Does the expected inclement weather play a role here?) Just as importantly, what will he do on the back end to complement what he does up front?As we detailed prior to the Patriots’ lo s to the , there are Belichick can approach covering an opponent with multiple high-level pa sing game threats. In this matchup, it’s pretty clear that is the top target. Belichick could choose to shadow him with , his best cover corner, or he could break out his “one-double” coverage, using Jackson against and double-teaming Diggs whenever po sible. Diggs lit up New England’s secondary for 6-92-0 and 9-145-3 in two matchups last season, and you can be sure Belichick will refuse to Nolan Ryan Jersey allow that to happen again. A game plan focused on stopping Diggs could force the pa sing game to run through and over the middle of the field, where New England has strong coverage linebackers. The Patriots can also sit on routes and take chances trying to jump Allen’s pa ses, looking to create a turnover on any player where he’s not pinpoint accurate. That could leave them susceptible to double moves on the outside — especially by Diggs — but it might be worth the risk. Latest Odds: Buffalo Bills -3 Prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 20
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